Enabling category-level decarbonization through decision modelling

Background

In a shift from product traceability to portfolio strategy, a UK retailer partnered with a food manufacturer and Mondra to test a new approach: using environmental impact data to drive sustainable, commercially viable category evolution. The project explored how data and decision science can transform category planning - aligning carbon reduction, commercial performance and nutritional goals.

Scope

To maintain focus and generate easily measurable results the scope of the project was set as follows:

• Focused on the Food to Go – Sandwiches category

• Analyzed SKUs across commercial, nutritional, and environmental dimensions

• Tested modeling across multiple intervention types: product reformulation, resizing, re-sourcing, pricing, and promotional strategies

Objectives

 The project aimed to:

• Prove that environmental data can inform assortment-level planning aligned to Net Zero goals

• Model multiple factors (e.g. carbon, cost, nutrition, sales margin) in category decisions

• Explore practical interventions across a real product category

• Propose workflows and integrations for repeatable, scalable decision-making

• Engage category stakeholders to assess real-world resilience challenges and opportunities

Approach & Methodology

The pilot followed a 4-part structure using a proprietary “Green House” decision-making framework:

Mandate - Defined objectives, governance, and Net Zero alignment

Criteria - Balanced carbon, profit, sales, quality, nutrition as decision variables

Logic - Applied weighted assumptions to enable scenario modeling

Decision - Modeled product- and category-level changes using real and proxy data

Analytical Approach

• Retailer margin, volume, and pricing data (some modeled)

• Product-level environmental data

• Nutritional data (HFSS scores) and cost estimates from market research

• Net Zero Transition Office (NZTO) -developed model and interface for real-time impact simulation

Intervention Types Explored

GREEN - Reformulate, resize, or re-source

• Resizing a low-volume wrap for a 10%+ carbon and nutrition improvement

IMPROVE - Increase margin or volume

• Re-sourcing of lettuce, tomato, and wheat to lower-emissions origins

RETAIN – Promote high performers

• Repricing of existing high performers to improve commercial yield

CHANGE - Consider delisting or replacing

• Repositioning an egg sandwich as a low-carbon, low-meat alternative

Key Findings

On project completion the following results were observed:

• Carbon Reduction: Achieved 5.24% across the modeled category.

• Margin & Volume: Commercial performance improved in the model.

• Nutritional Profile: HFSS scoring improved due to strategic interventions.

System Design & Decision Support

The project demonstrated how a decision-support system could:

• Let users simulate changes to ingredients, weights, margins, and sourcing

• Display live impact on carbon, margin, nutrition, and volume

• Provide heat maps, variance views, and scenario comparisons

• Codify intervention logic to automate future category reviews

Strategic Value Delivered

• Net Zero Transition Planning: Enabled credible category-wide roadmaps to 2040 targets.

• Commercial Buy-in: Proved sustainable change doesn’t require margin sacrifice.

• Evidence for Exec Decisions: Created the foundation for board-level case-making.

Looking Ahead

A structured roadmap was proposed:

• Proof of Concept Execution: Run a real-world Green Category Review using live data and stakeholder input.

• Net Zero Program: Set goals, scope, and reporting for long-term delivery.

• Scale to Assortment: Extend the approach across other categories with similar methodology.

• Embed & Integrate: Automate the modeling logic into core category planning systems.

Conclusion

This project proved that sustainability, commercial performance and nutrition can be modeled to align and drive more intelligent category evolution. Retailers and suppliers can now move from passive reporting to active, science-driven assortment change, unlocking a credible pathway to Net Zero.