Data-driven category greening to support sustainable growth

Background

To explore how environmental product data can enhance commercial strategy, a leading foodservice brand and supplier partnered with Mondra to test a new approach: using life cycle data and decision modeling to drive greener, more profitable category evolution. The pilot focused on identifying multi-dimensional improvements across a range of food-to-go products.

Scope

To maintain focus and generate easily measurable results the scope of the project was set as follows:

• Focused on SKUs across sandwiches, wraps, toasties, porridge, and pasta.Used a combination of Sales data (modeled)

• Product-level carbon data, Nutrition scores (HFSS / NPM) and Ingredient and sourcing cost data

• Highlighted where proxy data (husks or modeled assumptions) impacted accuracy

Objectives

The project aimed to:

• Demonstrate that product-level carbon data can underpin an assortment-level sustainability plan

• Test how modeling can balance carbon, cost, quality, and nutrition in real-world decision-making

• Design and evaluate intervention strategies (reformulation, re-pricing, promotion, sourcing)

• Simulate category evolution under Net Zero-aligned criteria

• Identify workflows and systems integration opportunities for future scaling

Approach & Methodology

The project utilized a four-stage approach:

Mandate - Set carbon targets and secure stakeholder alignment.

Criteria - Define priority metrics (carbon, profit, nutrition, volume) and assign weights.

Logic - Build assumptions to support scenario modeling.

Decision - Apply real or simulated interventions and review outcomes.

Modeling was performed using the NZTO decision support system, powered by Mondra’s environmental footprint data.

Intervention Strategies Tested

GREEN - Reformulate, resize, or re-source

• Reduced portion size of a wrap with low volume, achieving 15% carbon reduction and improved nutrition

IMPROVE - Increase margin or volume

• Tomato and wheat ingredients replaced with lower-emission country-of-origin alternatives

RETAIN – Promote high performers

• Chicken and prawn products redesigned to increase plant-based content and improve carbon and nutrition scores

CHANGE - Consider delisting or replacing

• Adjusted price of high-carbon SKUs to improve commercial contribution while maintaining customer value

Key Findings

On project completion the following results were observed:

• 7.3% Carbon Reduction across the modeled category

• Commercial Performance Maintained or Improved through targeted changes

• Nutritional Profile Improved, with lower HFSS impact for reformulated items

Strategic Value Delivered

The value delivered to the business was as follows:

• Carbon Reduction at No Commercial Cost: Category evolution can support Net Zero goals without sacrificing revenue or nutrition

• Decision-Support Tool Proofed: Real-world simulation enabled better planning, clearer trade-offs, and faster iteration cycles

• Roadmap for Category Reviews: Lays foundation for more systematic “Green Reviews” across the full assortment

Looking Ahead

The project feeds directly into a phased Net Zero transformation program::

• Proof of Concept (POC) - Model a category for carbon reduction without profit loss

• Green Category Review - Run a live review using refined model parameters and accurate data

• Impact Monitoring - Track margin, sales, nutrition, and emissions post-intervention

• Model Refinement - Update assumptions based on observed results

• Full Assortment Rollout - Scale model to additional categories with continuous improvement

Conclusion

This Project demonstrated that with the right data, logic, and tools, category-level carbon reduction is not only possible — it's commercially viable.

Decision-makers can balance performance, sustainability, and nutrition across complex ranges, transforming category planning into a strategic engine for Net Zero